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A short reference for every metric and section on this page — what it measures, and how to read it.
The current market value of everything you hold, converted to your display currency. The small percentage next to it is the change since your first transaction.
Unrealized gain or loss in cash terms — current value minus what you paid (cost basis).
Your return with the effect of deposits and withdrawals removed. Use this to compare your performance fairly against a benchmark or another investor.
Your annualized return weighted by the actual size and timing of your cash flows — closer to "what rate of return did my money really earn."
Total dividends received as a percentage of cost basis — your income return, separate from price appreciation.
How your TWR compares to a passive index (default S&P 500). Positive means your decisions outperformed simply holding the index.
Cumulative capital deployed over time, so you can see growth trajectory at a glance.
Current value broken down by individual symbol or by asset type — toggle between the two right on the chart. A quick check on diversification and concentration risk.
Total trading fees paid, grouped by broker — useful for spotting where costs are eating into returns.
Current market value grouped by broker — a quick sanity check that your balances match what each account actually shows.
Your best and worst performing positions today, ranked by live intraday price movement.
Your latest logged buys, sells and dividends. Open the full Transactions view to filter, edit, import or export.
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| Symbol | Type | Qty | Avg Cost | Mkt Price | Value | G/P | G/P % | Days | Weight |
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Howard Marks: we can't know where the market is going, but we can know where we stand. His checklist pairs opposite readings — lenders eager or reticent, asset prices high or low, investors optimistic or pessimistic — and the more of them sit on the hot side, the more caution is warranted; the more on the cold side, the more room for aggressiveness.
Each indicator is monthly and placed as a percentile against every month since 1990, turned so that 100 is the hot side. Five pillars average their indicators, and the index averages the pillars: valuations and prospective returns, credit and money, investor psychology, recent performance, and the economy and outlook.
Zones: below 15 extreme pessimism, 15–35 pessimism, 35–65 the middle of the cycle, 65–85 optimism, above 85 euphoria. Entering an extreme zone sends an e-mail with the market alerts.
The qualitative pillar covers what Marks weighs and no public series measures: the IPO market, junk issuance, loan terms, spreads, speculation and media tone. A scheduled Claude task scores it every week on a fixed rubric, with sources. It counts as one pillar more only while it is at most 14 days old; the card shows the index with and without it.
Percentiles place each month against all months since 1990, today included, and quarterly data count from their quarter's end although they are published about ten weeks later: the history shows where each month stands, not what was knowable then. The index says where we stand, not when the cycle turns; extremes can last for months.
Checked against 1990–2026 (18 Oct 2026): it read 20 at the October 2002 low, 7 in March 2009 and 29 in April 2020, but only 62 in March 2000 and 56 in June 2007, and it has never passed 80, so the euphoria alert (above 85) would not have fired once. It spots pessimism better than euphoria: near highs, weigh Claude's review and Marks's own signs.
Each bar reads the same way: left is fear or tight liquidity, right is greed or loose liquidity. The marker shows where today's reading sits against the last 10 years of the same indicator.
Zones: the outer 5% at each end is an extreme zone (⚠), the next 5% is elevated. Breadth uses fixed bands instead (20% and 80%).
What it measures: the price of protection against S&P 500 swings over the next 30 days (VIX) divided by the same over 3 months (VIX3M).
How to read it: normally below 1, because calm is expected to last and longer protection costs more. A rising ratio means fear is concentrating on the short term.
Extreme: 1 or above (backwardation) is panic — investors pay more for protection now than later. Very low ratios (bottom 5%) are complacency: little fear priced in.
What it measures: high-yield corporate bonds (HYG) against 7–10 year Treasuries (IEF), as the change of their ratio over 20 sessions (dividends included).
How to read it: when it falls, money is leaving risky debt for safety; when it rises, lenders are confident. Credit often turns before stocks.
Extreme: a fall in the worst 5% of the last 10 years is stress; a rise in the top 5% is very strong risk appetite.
What it measures: the dollar against six major currencies, as its change over about 3 months (63 sessions).
How to read it: a strong, fast rise in the dollar tightens liquidity worldwide (debt in dollars gets more expensive) and has tended to weigh on bitcoin and emerging markets; a falling dollar loosens it.
Extreme: a 3-month rise in the top 5% of the last 10 years is very tight; a fall in the bottom 5% is very loose.
What it measures: the share of your positions and watchlist trading above their own 200-day average.
How to read it: a market that rises with most names above their average is healthy; if the index rises while this share falls, the rally rests on few names.
Extreme: 20% or less is washed out (most names in downtrends, often near capitulation); 80% or more is stretched. With a small list, read it with care.
What it measures: the Federal Reserve's balance sheet minus the Treasury's cash account at the Fed (TGA) and the overnight reverse repo facility (RRP), a common estimate of the dollars the Fed leaves in the financial system. Shown as its change over 13 weeks; weekly data.
How to read it: rising means liquidity is coming into the system, which has tended to support risk assets; falling means it is being drained. It moves slowly: a backdrop, not a timing tool.
Extreme: a 13-week change in the bottom 5% of the last 10 years is a sharp drain (very tight); in the top 5%, a sharp injection (very loose).
What it measures: the Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index, built from over 100 measures of risk, credit and leverage in money, debt and equity markets. Weekly.
How to read it: 0 is the historical average. Positive means conditions are tighter than average, negative looser. A rising reading means money and credit are getting harder to come by.
Extreme: a reading in the top 5% of the last 10 years is very tight; in the bottom 5%, very loose (easy money, often with heavy risk-taking).
What it measures: the yield on 10-year inflation-protected Treasuries, the return on safe money after inflation. Daily.
How to read it: a high or rising real rate makes money expensive and safe assets attractive, which tends to weigh on growth stocks, gold and bitcoin; a low or falling one does the opposite.
Extreme: in the top 5% of the last 10 years is very tight; in the bottom 5%, very loose.
What it measures: alternative.me's daily index from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed), built from bitcoin's volatility, momentum and volume, social media, dominance and search trends.
How to read it: it describes the mood of the crypto market. Readings near the ends have tended to come near turning points, but the mood can stay extreme for weeks.
Extreme: the index's own Extreme Fear and Extreme Greed classes. The shaded ends of the bar follow where those classes have started in its history.
- Panic in volatility without credit stress has often been a passing scare; with credit stress as well, it is more serious.
- A dollar rising fast while credit weakens points to tightening liquidity, the backdrop in which risk assets have struggled most.
- Several indicators in the same extreme at once carry more weight than one alone.
- Fed liquidity, NFCI and the real rate move slowly and set the backdrop; volatility, credit and the mood indicators move faster.
These describe the market's condition; they are not buy or sell signals. Extremes have been followed both by rebounds and by further moves, and an indicator can stay extreme for weeks.
Four price signals, each placed against the same company's own last 5 years as a percentile. Left of each bar is fear, right is greed; the outer 5% at each end is an extreme zone.
Drop from 1-year high: how far the last close is below the highest close of the last 252 sessions.
Against the 200-day average: how far the last close is above or below it.
Against the Nasdaq-100: the change over 63 sessions (about 3 months) of the price divided by QQQ. Falling means lagging the market.
Volatility: the annualised standard deviation of the last 20 daily moves. High volatility reads as fear.
Overall: the average of the four, from 0 to 100, where 0 is the most fearful reading in the company's own history. 10 or less is panic, 25 or less fear, 75 or more greed, 90 or more euphoria. It needs three signals with at least a year of history.
Margin of safety: (the fair value minus the price) divided by the fair value. You enter the fair value or ask Claude to review it; the price signals never estimate it. Below 0 the price is above the fair value.
Business health: your own review of four points (deliveries on time, new contracts signed, customers kept, financing at a reasonable cost). Intact only when all four are marked good; any one marked bad makes it deteriorating.
Analyse (stocks only) queues a review by Claude. Once a day, in the morning, a scheduled Claude session reviews the queued companies from filings and news and fills in the fair value, the four health points, a short note and its sources. Values Claude set are marked as such and reviewed again every week; change one by hand and they become yours and are no longer reviewed automatically. Claude can be wrong: read the note and the sources.
"All three" marks companies with fear or panic in the price, health intact and a margin of safety of 25% or more. Fear with a deteriorating business is a different situation from fear with an intact one.
This describes how unusual the price action is and records your own judgement; it is not a buy or sell signal. A price can stay in an extreme zone for weeks, and young companies have short histories.
Each Polymarket monthly market asks whether the price will touch a level at any moment this month: one minute at or beyond it is enough. Its price, from 0 to 100%, is what traders pay for "yes", roughly the probability they put on it.
50% up is the level the price is as likely as not to reach at some point before the month ends; 50% down, the same on the way down. Both can happen in the same month, and neither is where the price will close the month.
Example: BTC with 50% up ≈ $87,400 and 50% down ≈ $78,600 means traders see an even chance of a touch at each. The further the two levels are from today's price, the bigger the move they expect this month, in either direction.
≈ means the level is interpolated between the two listed levels around 50%. > or < means the 50% point lies beyond the furthest level listed, or before the nearest.
The % under each level is how far it is from today's price; for an ETF, from the coin's price.
▸ opens every level with its probability. "Touched" levels have already been reached this month.
Liquidity is the money waiting to trade in the market. The more there is, the harder it is for a few small bets to move the price.
Thin market: under $5,000 of liquidity, or levels priced inconsistently (a further level above a nearer one). A few small trades can set those prices and they can be stale: read them as noise, not as a forecast.
via BTC / via ETH: an ETF or ETP that holds the coin shows the coin's market. Its own price follows the coin, but not exactly (fees, currency, trading hours).
This is what traders bet, not a forecast to rely on: prices include fees and a premium for risk, only the largest US stocks and coins have a market, and the month starts over on the 1st (New York time). Not advice.
Distance: how far the price is above or below its own 200-day average.
Trend (4 wk): how the 200-day average itself moved over the last 20 sessions. ↗ rising (more than +1%), → flat (within ±1%), ↘ falling (more than −1%).
- Above the average and the average rising: the price is in an uptrend.
- Below the average and the average falling: the price is in a downtrend.
- Above but the average falling, or below but the average rising: the trend may be turning. The average reacts late, so it confirms a turn only after it has started.
- Average flat and the price crossing it often: no clear trend (sideways).
Last cross: the most recent day the price moved from one side of its average to the other.
Volatility: how much the price usually swings in a year (annualised standard deviation of daily moves, last 12 months). A broad stock index is typically around 15–20%; crypto and crypto-linked shares are often several times that.
From 52-week high: how far the last close is below the highest close of the last 12 months.
Worst drop in 12 months: the largest fall from a peak to a later low within the last year — what holding it felt like at its worst.
Correlation with BTC: how closely its daily moves followed bitcoin over the last year, from −1 to 1. Above about 0.7 it has moved mostly with bitcoin, so buying more of it adds to the same bet rather than diversifying. Near 0 it has moved on its own. Correlations change, and they tend to rise in sell-offs.
It describes past prices. It is not a buy or sell signal, and it reacts late to sharp moves.
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